Are We Running Out of Flu Vaccine?

Dec. 5, 2003 -- If you haven't yet had your flu vaccine, don't wait any longer. Contrary to media reports, supplies haven't run out -- yet.

"There is flu vaccine out there in the marketplace," CDC spokeswoman Karen Hunter tells WebMD. "We are working to see what the actual status of the flu vaccine in the U.S. really is. But it is not unusual at this time of year for all flu supplies to be distributed by their manufacturers. A lot of places already are winding down their flu vaccination programs. But if we find pockets of places that are short of flu vaccine, we would see that vaccine shipments go to them."

Media reports have made much of the fact that Chiron Corp. and Aventis Pasteur Pharmaceuticals have already shipped all 83 million doses of the killed flu vaccines they make. Together with 4 million to 5 million doses of MedImmune's FluMist nasal vaccine, that's the entire U.S. supply.

But just because the vaccines have been shipped doesn't mean state, local, and private health-care providers have run out.

"It is like we are a turkey farm," Chiron spokesman John Gallagher tells WebMD. "Just because we shipped all out our turkeys by Thanksgiving doesn't mean there aren't any in the stores."

MedImmune spokeswoman Lori Weiman says her company still has more of the nasal FluMist vaccine. Even though it was approved only last June -- for people aged 5 to 49 -- the company was able to produce some 4 million to 5 million doses.

"We are not out," Weiman tells WebMD. "We still have supply and would love to help protect people this year."

It's Now or Never

But if you still haven't had a shot or mist of flu vaccine, don't wait. The maximum number of doses for this year, counting FluMist, adds up to 88 million at most. The CDC estimates there are 180 million Americans -- children, elderly people, and health-care workers -- who really should get vaccinated. Fears of a more severe flu this year are greatly increasing demand, says Michael Decker, MD, MPH, Aventis vice president for scientific and medical affairs.

"I'd be surprised if people don't run out of vaccine. It is easy for that to happen this year," Decker tells WebMD. "Nobody knows how much is sitting in doctors' refrigerators. But the best guess so far is there is probably not a lot out there."

Decker's advice for people who still want the vaccine: Get moving.

"If you move quickly, you can still get yourself a flu shot," he says. "But it is like shopping on Christmas Eve. The first one or two places you go may be sold out."

Why isn't there more flu vaccine? There's actually more flu vaccine this year than last year -- and last year, Decker says, demand was so low that some 10 million doses got thrown out. If everyone who is supposed to get their flu vaccine every year would get it, there would always be financial incentive for manufacturers to make more.

And more for this year is out of the question. The entire process takes about four months. This year's vaccine supply was started in February and began shipping in August.